a foam burst

This confidence trick
See is over it?
since early March in global equity markets rebound after bottoming out. As of mid-April,beijing massage, the world's important stock markets reported a 20% gain. in the hardest kick by the financial crisis, U.S. banks reported good results Annual Report. President Obama talked about seeing a shimmer of hope. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also think the economy of the initial signs of recovery. Japan has just announced a new economic stimulus package. market prophesy, China will be announced The second round of economic stimulus package. suddenly appeared on the market The next sequence of new problems will market fell anew. banking initial public attempting (IPO) will be devoured emerging markets. peruse more investors will use their own real money, for these banks and companies undergoing warm clothes weaving.
In fact, the placement may have been filled with the tide, bear market rally may be concluded within a month or two. good newspaper for the economic stimulation of the data migrate, and a bear market rally may be staged this fall. until proven unsustainable economic recovery, the second economic recession, or inflation expansion of the pressure forcing the central bank and monetary constricting despite the weak economy, the rally will end. asset prices in the second half of 2010 fell to the bottom end. then, the market will see a fiscal stimulus, whether from depletion, the central bank can no longer printing money, the abuse.
bear market rally is not sustainable
in early 2009, I expect a rebound will occur two to three dwelling. Now, I modified my views, I think, will emerge twice a rebound in 2009. Now, We are experiencing the first skip, securities nestle and IPO will end this rally. turn a good macro-economic data will promote a new round in the third quarter rally. In a formerly promulgated treatise, I predict the economy will be a second in 2010 recessions.
since the summer of 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, terror dominated the financial markets. previous market rally are short-term weakness, just a prefix to the afterward crash. Over the past five weeks of increases, is as yet the longest bear market rebound. It lasts longer, the market surmise the more panic. I can feel the pessimism to see more investors.
few days ago, the U.S. TV outlet CNBC in an interview, a man with a ; tide of financial crisis thumping . Goldman Sachs pioneered the publication of operating in nice condition, they also need to raise funds to compensate the government? in emerging markets, IPO suspension will comeback later two years.
For investors, they absence to think is that these companies need financing reasons. in the foreseeable hereafter, muscular growth in the universal economy is unlikely that companies do not need capital to amplify, the most presumable respond is to arrange for the future of bitterness. I think that these positive comments made in public affair is not optimistic about the hereafter, equitable want to optimism in the market when the chance is still misappropriating. fashionable financing needs will eventually overwhelm the market.
bull market conditions are: the market has been down or no; the global economy is retrieval or will revive; if the economy is still complicated, the Government will accept more economic stimulus measures. there is a bear market conditions: the level of debt was still high debt levels the global economy can not reproduce the case of non-normalized growth; the global economy is still dwindling, despite the likelihood of a inferior extent; the Government's incentive archive can not start a new round of economic growth cycle.
bearish camp, I stood alongside. This is a once in a centenary economic emergency, only 20 can be compared Century 30's back to the standard 20 annuals ago; Second, fabrication exporters, such for China, Germany, Japan, must be significantly disabled its production-oriented functions.
debt crisis is far from over. Despite all the speak about as in the quondam to the market to lend money, but they can rotate to the Fed and the U.S. government. In the United States reduce the leverage of financial traditions have not yet the case,shanghai escort, how can we say that the crisis is over it?
debt disadvantageous consequences occasioned at the bubble burst only just appeared. As of the end of 2008, U.S. family web asset has shrunk from a peak in 2007 of 20%, fell to 13 trillion. U.S. real estate prices are still down. U.S. housing prices are threaten to fall further to 5 trillion or more. On the other hand, U.S. family debt levels did not decline, the end of 2008 is 13.8 trillion greenbacks. This is the 30 years since the 20th century, the U.S. household debt for the first time higher than the real estate market. Clearly, depending on Housing time real estate to consumer loans gone.
revenue perspective is highly frosty. Global demand for aid from some of the credit bubble has been obliterated out, Europe, Japan and the U.S. unemployment rate is rising quickly. With the unemployment groups to dwindle consumer costing,huge midday, the multiplier effect to promote a further addition in unemployment, a vicious wheel has by far bottomed out. the ever-increasing shock of unemployment on claim will proceed to 2010.
Do not hope a lot of new bubble
those who see multi-market, in the hope that the emergence of a new bubble. They think that if people are optimistic the market will worth their money, rising asset prices will support additional demand, the company proceeds will enhance, so will the bull market into the future true. In fact,shanghai escort, addition on a new round of bubble populations in the world today is very common, and even policy makers privately hope that the emergence of new bubbles. crisis destroyed the people's morale. They still miss the good old days. Deliberation of, discernment, Atsuyuki the normal. When the bubble burst the anguish became unbearable, these people will be on the good times past hallucination. their collective behavior will lead the market rebound, as if the bubble once more. However, a bubble burst, no longer can not recover as ever.
governments and central banks tried to discourage asset prices. Now, hopes are pinned on the government's rescue operations. However, the interest rate is near to naught, the budget shortage is also high. When a sudden rise of inflation, the Government will lose aid. In the last wish is lost, asset prices will bottom actually expected this scene will happen in 2010.
Some people will argue: Why can not we blow the old foam or re-create new bubbles do ? The problem is, a continuation of several years after the bubble burst, it left garbage everywhere, so the lack of new bubbles foothold. For example, the current high level of debt can not rise further; If the debt can not increase the level of the bubble can never expand. to improve the current situation will take time, if you await for a new round of the bubble, I am terrified it will be a long wait.
collective human idea vulnerable to mood alterations. If people believe what they are familiar, folk will lightly believe. animal world there are similar Crocodile at the same time can only eat an animal, so that the outlay of a partner's life to ensure the other secure. It appears that herd behavior is causativeable rejoinder to normal course of peril.
I namely the efficacy of the human genome in like of the group apt cross the rill with the herd of collective action namely the same. Despite the mutation of the mental cortex makes logical human creatures tin think, yet instinctively did not lose, but hiding very deep, whether circumstances allow, apt jump out to dominate. This is despite the many times in human history has a lesson of blood, but still seen above the reasons because the bubble.
savage animals crossroads the advantages of the collective is real, and if they cross the river lonely, will be left to crocodile hounding them more time. If they want to play there are a lot of advantages to cross the river, we need a leader who launched the run and the first leader who rupture into the river distant the probability of being dined much higher than other animals. irrational behavior is really for the benefit of the individual interests of the community.
in economic life, and some bubble is surely conducive to economic evolution. For example, IT bubble created by the global science and technology has also benefited, nevertheless the the original investors may lose money. those who believe that investment in IT field can be compared to wealthy people in the herd leader who does not consciously in the public interest at the expense of their own.
technological ingredients steer most of the bubble have similar characteristics,shanghai massage, to benefit the world but not for investors. Schumpeter (Joseph Schumpeter) of the , so the governments and central banks for their very generous.
over time, on altitude of the fruitful assets, president of a colossal bubble, it will have destructive results. global real estate bubble belong to this species, the leverage effect of derivatives has created unprecedented boom in the real estate market. nonproductive bubble built on top of the high debt levels, or lead to large-scale bank failures (as the U.S. century, 30 years), or will lead to hyperinflation (as Germany century, 20 years) or a huge government debt (as Century 90's Japan). from a debt bubble product to recover the abuse caused by the need for a long time. < br> Although the pain of the bursting bubble, but it is not so desperate. This is for, although the companies faced bankruptcy and household, but the government's stimulus policies to make them live peacefully in general. the 1 hand, fiscal policy and monetary policy to do The best to support, on the other hand are words to soothe investors, increase investor confidence, hope to turn to the asset market, cattle, drive economic growth. Currently, oral provocation of these policies are going.
sample, the U.S. administration is to carry out accentuate tests on the U.S. banking manufacture, aimed at the banking industry can withstand mall estimated evolution. I believe that most banks execute well via this test, although, it is only self-deception . In truth, the U.S. fiscal system is bankrupt from a technical point of outlook. A strength of the banking system, reflecting its services, the strength of the economic system. We take a see at the balance sheet of American families, we can entirely comprehend that in so many Customer circumstance of insolvency, the banking industry on how to survive?
these Real estate amounts are falling, the unemployment rate continues to ascend. When inflation suddenly looked up, it will shut the government salvage arrange final door. At that time, despite the penniless economic location, the central bank had to heave interest rates, asset costs will the real base end.
can solace people artificial hope, but delay the needful reforms, can only make the situation got so bad. When the government tried to recover past payments play a lot of good times, they find that they absence financial resources to alleviate the present the pain of structural reform. the entire world like a destitute drug addicts, and often advance the social welfare checks to satisfy their obsession. When the retard spend tired and had to completely cede the old habits.
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