Sunday, June 5, 2011

cover all of the citizen economic from the super-national companies

Theory of the Firm and China's reform and
2008-10-09 16:14:49
Theory of the Firm and Chinese Reform
Zhou Qi Ren
Weekend October 9, 2008 Thursday
individuals from Zhou Qi Ren Website: reproduced please specify.
mm Coase then used his teacher used a vivid metaphor, like a real market economy, the sea is the sea of ​​those companies, large and small islands.
mm Deng Xiaoping reform policies the most extraordinary place,beijing escort, is in various fashions of economic organization developed behind the fire price reform in a timely style.
Speaking from Kos: The company is a market in the ocean island
thought the origin of a planned economic is theory of the fixed. Marxist discourse, the great house in a planned and unplanned entire society, it namely this conflict will shove the demise of capitalism. At namely time the view is speed up social pregnant forces, so the corporation will increasingly larger, until covering the whole economy, the internal plans of large companies intend to chance whole society. this view, the theory of planned economy, in truth, the premier is a theory about the company. Lenin put it extra clearly, the socialist presidency of the proletariat , is to always members of society have chance a national company employees, the whole economy is a super-national companies.
Coase Looking behind on his theory of the firm, clearly speaking, he was subjected to the impact of these motifs of Lenin, that countries can be watched as a huge company. Of lesson, Coase provides information on the company's economics. He first asked: In the the amount machinery to scamper company? Coase's reply was the cost of market amount machinery. The transaction costs. As the mart expands, transaction costs have to spend a lot of resources. In some cases, the cost machinery to use the then went to the market in the company organization. However, Coase can not come to the State Super company even now, because his thinking also take into account additional costs, that condensed within the company, the Company's costs (including decision-making, supervision, treatment costs) to rise.
complete look, Coase's theory of the firm is taking two costs: the company can retention the cost of market transactions, but must disburse the costs of organizing this, while the companies to save costs and thereby increasing the transaction costs of organizing are equal at the margin, when the boundaries of the company and the market to resolve. Coase with his instructor accustomed an picture of the year sameness, the real market economy like the sea, the ocean is those companies large and small islands. In Coase view, transaction costs and organizational costs in the coexistence of the real earth, the Ocean can not cover everything, let unattended cover all the isle Ocean.
reform starting point: the super-national companies dysfunctional
reform socialist countries, and opposed to the starting point of Coase. Coase contemporary economics from the reason the company exists. the former Soviet Union and China, reform, it is from the practice of the planned economy, that is, a super-state's reality. The super-national companies, all economic resources in their own hands, by the state machine political authority, coercive power, and a comprehensive plan to organize the national economy. Lenin came to power after a duration of and the market, but it was a very temporary. Stalin perfected the overall nationalization, the Soviet economy ahead the revolution, Lenin organized into the envisaged super-state companies by executive order organization within the planned economy, not to private property rights and free market activity illegal left status.
rotate to China in the more behind a peasant country to build socialism, the Soviet Union is a large framework. But Chairman Mao to the Soviet Union's extremely centralized and not many satisfaction, several tests of decentralization, the decentralization of the central to location. Looking back, it was merely in the central administration and the detachment of powers among regional governments, is a super-national companies and many local administration company. This of course can not constitute the basis of a market economy, because ; this issue, Chairman Mao, not to step. truly where the local administration to economy decision-making into personal hands, he have to stop the elderly, such as the 1962 installment of ; household responsibility system. is not as good as the internal class of the sometime Soviet Union as a . Over the annuals of socialist economic construction problems, is super-state in the company's costs are also tall, failure of the planned economy, efficiency of resource delivery is too low. millions of people to amend their lives in times of truce, involving many variables and the coordination of supply and demand? by the planned economy, a super company to deal with centralized decision-making, information costs are also lofty, and people provocation to work less than .1977 of labor reform in China in the eve of the State Council has opened a withdraw to reflect on why China and the important Western economies, the technology breach dragged big, over-centralized chief conclusion is that speed up centrally planned economy will not turn.
reforms launched: Decentralization and rural household responsibility system
problem is that after the establishment of super-national company, organization costs if it is base too high, what Which route to the cost of running the economy down, is naturally a mission of unprecedented. Coase's theory found that the market transaction costs are too high, you can distend the organization to be saved. but the social Reform of the difficulties faced by communism, entirely prof: State Super company too, the organization costs are too high, how can we dwindle it?
seems cozy to determine the intention, that is, cover all of the citizen economy from the super-national companies, turned to the ; market sea system, the market how the reconstruction of person history and experience and theory is not readily available.
Coase in 1959 in a periodical that clearly defines the rights of the key conditions for market transactions. This proposition contains a simple truth: If a thing is not me, then I put it where the right to sell you? Therefore, the transaction ought be defined as a requirement to the right. Since the market economy for the content of the transaction, then the premise is the clear market the right to define.
reform in China, in practice the right from the start to redefine. In the , that is how people can doing, not how the behavior of a system description. forced by the situation in the reform, the right to be re-defined, because of re-defining the rights,beijing escort, especially the re-recognition of private property rights and transfer rights, market narrations before re-up development in China.
1978 年 deployed the Third Plenum of the reform is to expand the autonomy of state-owned enterprises. It is based on the local reform experiments in Sichuan, the original organ controlled by the country's economic decision-making power, into the enterprise level. This is a response to external shocks because of foreign investment entered China, they can make decisions speedily, but not state-owned enterprises. What should be accepted, a large state-owned enterprises even build a toilet to be submitted for approval, the so-called notable fable, where a set of equipment is the Westernization Movement epoch, the energy consumption greatly, if varied, the driving force, two years of energy savings can retrieve their investments. But the report played for many years, or not approved. So was the slogan of the reform is decentralization, deregulation.
Interestingly, the expansion of enterprise autonomy, not in the global open, and the rural household responsibility system reform on the agenda. A few days before the memorial of 30 years at the rural reform , when the charge of the work of Du Ruizhi rural Guangdong told a splendid thing: the first power of rural reform, the peasants of the abdomen! is the harvesting of people starving, not hungry stomach, forcing out the household responsibility system. is not the first time, the household responsibility system is the first in Wenzhou Yongjia County, the second half of 1956, began to engage in high society; 40% in 1961, Anhui Province, the production team out of the household responsibility system. The problem is the situation before a turn for the better each time, temporary policy to recover the.
route of China: the bottom of innovation, the Government acknowledges
after scrupulous reconnaissance of rural reform in 1978, the same as in the quondam, farmers and production crew cadres beneath the first change spontaneously engage in household production. not the same place where? is the altitude line of a fundamental alteration in political ideology, the verdict celebration and work hard to make realistic, paperback adore, dogma and stiff. In this ideological line, some local defiance to reform the bottom of the first to acknowledge , at fewest not big stick, allowing to attempt, take a look. a number of places to see the achieve of the reform, the central policy document then, to acknowledge, the last legislation recognizes the complete legalization of the right to redefine the whole process.
this Article constantly reiterated old in his biographies that, as early as 1962 Deng Xiaoping said, restoration and evolution of agricultural production, to take what form; people willing to take what form it should take what form it illegal to make it lawful. become the dominant line on the Third Plenary Session. This changed the fate of China, because at the bottom, in the first line, there will forever extract a number of ways of solving practical problems, the problem is, they can not obtain admission. has been to redefine the right to have a system of results. get it? underlying experience or individual experience, at best an expedient amount, absolutely can not final long.
. ideas and notions have a mighty stubborn, not to mention contradictory interests of all parties, and each angle of approach is constantly the central conference another .1980 rural reform, party secretary because of the high officials as a difference of opinion was referred to the bad terms. test of truth is a process easier mentioned than done.
radical redefinition of rights can also be gradual. China's reform process generally come step by step. is this view, the ownership of rural land still belongs to the collective, it seems accurate the same a few decades antecedent. just change the ownership of the content is no more than the contract by contract, to agricultural land use rights, management rights, the right to return the contract period until the transfer of rights,Ben. Wallace Defenders, one by one are defined to the farmers. Agriculture collective ownership of land still, but in this heading to be a negate owner. in the production and economic activities, the affirmative is that farmers contractor.
have friends criticizing that the compact system is no complete, that still maintains a sense of collective ownership and, therefore, to grass-roots power of people leaving a violation of the interests of farmers root of the system. This commentary is justified. But whether this step had not take household liability system in rustic China do not go out. go first step, followed by further defined attribute rights onward the direction, the aggregate tin go aboard. such for the contract system, collective resources of a still mode of action, merely the contract farmers proceeds can be clearly legitimate personal property. This shows that is re-are likewise generally legal. This is someone as the refrain.
right to redefine the contract system is a Chinese form, but also super-state organizations from the high cost of the company came out of the predicament of a pragmatic channel. contracting business from the public, to comprise private property system, including the formation of a diversity of property rights system, and eventually take the market economy, China has laid the foundation of the road.
property rights are not using it, but to make use of them, primarily to protect the co-operation with others, formed through the interchange of specialization. Here there is a thing too much distress to brain is hired. With the end of the same big kettle of Agriculture, there have been large rural To exclude capitalist exploitation, when the policy, private workers over 7 employees the capitalist, that is, the exploiting class.
This is the household responsibility system, the reform of the second issue encountered. this object handled more successful, basic approach is to see at, do not rush to make determinations, but are not granted to stick to the trampled 1.
was caught a few cases. A Tony Chen, Guangdong Gaoyao County, contracting fish, there are more than three acres of water, relying on household labor and a few helpers insufficient, and hired more than 7 people. It is not that capitalism? a lot of people started to discuss, and afterward Hu Yaobang personally interrupt and queried to illuminate the situation, different views can be argued, but do not big stick, also resolved in the ,shanghai massage, the famous iron rice bowl. the competition for good workers. Tonnochy personally organized a examine of the position very cautiously and tangible: the number of people hired in the end, made a number of salary, pay no taxes to the state, the foreman how much total profit of all ascertain out , then the controversies must figure out different views, organize a matter reported to the Deng Xiaoping. I memorize returned by Deng Xiaoping's instructions, that is 5 words mm the last batch of capitalism, not only with a fussy arms, and often in front of a recognition of the private sector and there is no socialist real peril. This is a very momentous step in economic development. In fact, Deng Xiaoping returned to power shortly reactivated Rong, which is representative of the national bourgeoisie in the past, through state-funded Office of CITIC However, the management of full power to pinion boss. in fact the ability of state-owned chief with entrepreneurs mm which is something impossible to assume the past. In adding, the household responsibility system into place after the civil from the many new forms of business organization, Deng Xiaoping has been said look, do not move, such a policy orientation about two to three years to maintain the central 5 In 1986 announced the beginning of the document, you can put into the private sector to deal with the socialist framework. China's industrial and advertisement registration began the Some take the time to shed a cut card, that finally have a legal status. actually start a company, fried melon seeds, shoes like that. This is the second bound of China's reform, not only recognized the labor of personnel based on their own ability of property rights, but also in the framework of laws and policies, employee contracts, including contracts through the market to organize economic development of production.
breathtaking prices damage through the barrier
reform policies of Deng Xiaoping's the most amazing place, is in many forms of economic organization developed after the launch price reform in a timely manner. logic is this: when a super-national companies broken down into many separate companies, with the newly formed private company, the economy can no longer rely on plans and orders to command, to give full play to the market price mechanism of coordination functions. From the spring of 1988, Deng Xiaoping began to promote the price reform. China's price reform phoned the The gist and key. the elemental Soviet Union and Eastern countries such as Poland, the change to the price system to be a big problem. This is a big barrier,shanghai massage, there is no strong political support can not cross this off.
strongly promote the price reform of Deng Xiaoping. This is invaluable. Usually speaking, economists understand and deem that the price mechanism, on the whole easier. but the politicians in power, to believe that the price mechanism ordinarily more difficult. because so-called plans to see the hand, between inadvertently replaced. the price mechanism into activity, the acceptance of the hand, the hand of power not much use. Xiaoping served as General Secretary, directive over the mighty militia, clearly has strong visiblehand, should be the world's most powerful apparent hand. are like this great statesman and his colleagues to leftover no exertion to price advocate and enhance the reform is to reform the least probable places. no strong political support for price reform is difficult to succeed. However, to politicians in support of price reform, but also easier said than done?
, of course, the price of 1988 which pass through the wag of the launch, and did not succeed. Politburo that year on the price and remuneration reform, a issued decision, the country to buy and run occurred. The main lesson is that too many cases in the currency, liberalizing prices put the stealth inflation, inflation becomes dominant, the masses can not be approved. However, Deng Xiaoping has not put price reform as a limited area can not meet again. He waited patiently for several years, until the super-issued currency Shoulong was about time to push prices in 1992, he changed. big step forward in China's price reform was completed in 1993, even the most powerful food prices are liberalized. This is the establishment of China's socialist market economy, arranging a foundation.
broad point of view, the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China's reform, by redefining right, stimulate the market contracts to create the market price-based coordination mechanism is so 3 points, the orthodox socialist super-state corporate model, radically changed. the reform process, not major shocks of social, economic movement and making of not only continuous, but also to retain a continuous high growth. It is through reform and opening up of China as a large developing country with global inspire.
bound by the rule of law back to talk about the power
Coase's theory of the firm . He left the starting point is that present-day fashion economics, the reduce transaction costs for the real economy was active in the world. Coase understood the company is through internal mandates, engage in plans and strategies, there are owners and directors, by the visible hand of the command, thus saving the transaction costs of market . However, Coase did not believe the company the bigger the better, because he also found that the big companies must face the rely on central planning command command, and that transaction costs are of course proficient to save all, but this see Coase's theory, is to uphold the constraints of cost, analyzing real-world markets, business and government. model those problems in a market economy, but faced with the trouble of planning mm internal information system of high cost, low motivation. Therefore, the reform of the tone is from the State Super company that is starting a planned economy towards more use of the market price mechanism. So that reform is not to go national companies, nor is the so-called absolute market.
the difficulty of reform in the bad? is to leave the perfect super-national companies that market and the poles in the medium there is a lot of apartment for plan selection system. Chinese companies from the super-state out, by the re-definition of rights. The problem is to redefine the rights of a process, which has a key, Deng Xiaoping put forward, but not resolved, this is the meaning of national executive power and restraint. because in the past super National company is Zhengqigeyi, political and economic consensus, decentralization reforms, the executive power and economic power to go down with the new problem is that delegating administration to fasten rely on? leave forcible binding, the executive power into the market that corruption is not a moral issue of individual officials, but the institutional problems. broad executive power to stir the market transactions, how to determine?
.1980 Deng Xiaoping has done a lot to explore about the party and the years to reform the state system , 1986, he was revisiting this topic, has made it quite clear that, first, that if I were you engage in political reform, economic reform achievements is the restrain of; second, if not to engage in political reform, economic reform is can not proceed. That is, the economic reforms launched after the political system must be launched in due course. factors of the reform is to super-state that chapter of the company's executive powers, bound together afresh In 1987 the CPC accepted a political system Thirteenth reform programme, but the price break through the barrier in 1988 failed, the ensuing uproar in Beijing, there is no chance of implementing the political reform agenda of 1992 and pushed the reforms Deng Xiaoping's Southern lecture, the main thing is to push economic reform, marketization and expedite development. So the political reform, Deng Xiaoping's unfinished prepared.
super-state company is not purely a business, it is also a power (power) system, not just the is not appropriate empirical framework with a contract to deal with it. Some economists accustomed to deal with the market of contract theory, principal-agent model of what local government competition, and so, I muse they may have missed a key limitation is not legally enforceable contract constraints. the reality of the central government departments alternatively local governments, nevertheless it seems like corporate behavior, but there is one factor, that, power factor, the legitimate coercive power factor, not the market contracts can be deal. such as income delivery, public attitude much. But the problem is not only is the inconsistency between income issues are more fundamental causes of income differences on what basis? Yao high income, is one thing, but the corruption of Wuhan Railway Station high-income landlords, is different material. scalping for the unlawful use of revenue from the power that is legitimate coercive power, not the market forces of championship can be restrained.
ability to make money. must be remove, this problem is not simply economic reforms can be solved, neither can these activities great success, with farmers contracting with private enterprises, with the reform of state-owned enterprises, but also have a price mechanism in the allocation of resources according to a market economy basis, these reforms greatly rescued productivity in China. But we also see that reform did not complete. The biggest challenge is Zhengqigeyi super-national companies, after the decentralization, property rights can be constrained by competition in the market to go, but unlocked the executive power but to rely on the rule of law may be valid only constraint. This is the more difficult reforms.
land, and price monopoly of state-owned enterprise reform is the trouble
there is a prescience that China's reform is progressive in terms of tactics, all butme scholars summed up the Russia's is not easy to be changed. The difficulty here is no longer understanding, or purely ideological, but very hard, it's vested interests. The current observation that any difficulties in the reform, are associated to this .
such as the reform of land property rights system, the first place, but today there are some crucial issues remain unresolved. agricultural land bottom along the agricultural system that is contracted to the home, long-term change, the implementation of the transfer of power, can basically encounter the productivity requirements. However, once agricultural land to non-agricultural uses, the land petition system in that country or the world shine. why the farmers of the land when converted to non-agricultural purposes, there must be national compulsory gain, and then to the land leased by the government to the market ? This is the most manifest instance of the executive power to enter the market. Now a lot of social conflicts have occurred in this area. Why is the rural collective construction land, the land can not directly enter the market? discussed for many years, the experience of local tests a lot, there are more underground, semi-underground practice, why is the long defer in completing the national legalization? In my opinion no other reason, that is, the benefits of power stirred the market is too high, no vested interest parties willing to give up.
farmers around the metropolis as city, urban land use, of course to mushroom, but the country as a share of the homestead benefits, farmers have no right to transfer and trade, would the allocation of land resources and, therefore, not subject to price guidelines. the result is not only China's quick urbanization no more intensive use of land, instead of an even more intensive land use. the one hand, urban land was placed on the one hand a large number of untouched rural land for construction. so the unavoidable result. Recently countries have begun to redefine property rights to promote forest is an important reform. like water rights, ore rights, and so re-defined, there are many articles do.
another example, there are private enterprises great development in recent years also adopted the win, it seems to become bigger and stronger so that only one thing.
whether price reform is not completed? much of the price decisive by the market is a fact, but some key price or executive pricing. exchange rates, amuse rates, vigor such as coal, oil electricity, where serious problems of the national economy in recent years, looks approximately with the price mechanism to play a character not narrated. Experience has shown that price controls will not only affect the configuration of the number of resources, but also affect the quality of merchandise and services. no further price reform, difficult to eliminate a lot of confusion.
In short, the great accomplishments of China's reform, the task is arduous. only seriously amount up their experience to better migrate amenable. real complex phenomena and problems, this simple theoretical framework for companies to borrow, to understand the past the face of the hereafter. above views for you criticism.
(The writer is a professor of Peking University's China Center for Economic Research, this is the daytime of the Economic Institute of the Guangdong Institute of Memorial Humanities seminar on 30 years of reform and opening comments , text revised by me)
from Zhou Qiren website: rebuilt please clarify.

yet on Pot stew hh

01. The early bird gets the worm, early insects dined at birds !
02. and a MM argue namely whales are not fish , and eventually I said, Whales are not fish .
03. Tiechu to floor into a needle , but tin merely be ground into toothpicks Mu Chu , material does not , more effort is useless .
04. If Replies is a morality , then I would Become a saint .
05. Life is no like cooking,beijing massage, put entire the matters are prepared before the kettle .
06. I listened a female such for clothes , sibling of brotherhood . Looking behind, I actually busy divvying The streaker 20 years !
07. to wear something else's shoes,beijing escort, work its own course , let them work activity to ascertain .
08. there is a very antique romance, said to be competent to penetrate the college in the XX To the beauty of the people will live always hh
09. Is the world can unite to break the eggs stones? ! So life is still to be naturalistic hh
10. not afraid of the tiger as the enemy, afraid of the same pig Teammates !
11. summer is wrong , the meager northwest wind while I did not even have to drink hh
12. I've had a pair of wings, merely I did not use it in the sky , yet on Pot stew hh
13. water is clear there are no fish ,merely this namely no simply defensive 3 simple, folk are invincible to the pedestal !
14. I am not a haphazard human , and I can not longer a male .
15. Today,beijing escort, I said to a team of Mm visited our school apt acquaint the fact ,beijing massage, this is the first time I said, I saw dress ashore !

Cape Town

Nature has given South Africa's natural beauty and wealthy variety of plant and animal species. Fresh climate and extensive nature reserve so that always guests to South Africa impressed close contact with animals as many about the experience memorable.
Land South Africa, an area of ​​over 1.22 million square kilometers in the number of species ranked third in the globe. South Africa the nation with large-scale ecological and environmental protection 422, with an area totaling over 67,000 square kilometers, in terms of quantity and proportion of total land,Also for of someone another, are highest in the earth. South Africa's ecological and environmental protection areas are mostly concentrated in the mounds of brutal animals and plants grass, the Gulf beaches, scenic attractions and cultural memorials, highlighted these areas of South Africans adore of nature and a strong sense of nature protection .
nature reserves in counting to a great area outdoor the major cities in South Africa also use some of the characteristics of its own geography and build a large number of different fashions of the Botanical Garden. which built magisterial chief Pretoria Botanical Garden has collected hundreds of thousands Africa and the recess of the world's vegetation specimens, the sheer number of alike botanical gardens to the highest in the southern hemisphere.
South African National Assembly News Center because Wu Ye Erwa told correspondents that more than 100 countries in environmental protection divisions, research institutions and some investigation and learn of multinational organizations to South Africa, South Africa's ecological and environmental protection are highly praised go.
Wu Ye Erwa said that South Africa has been accompanied by ecological and environmental protection and construction of the development, acceptance of the State Government in the project devise converge. she said, the Constitution of South Africa, ecological and environmental protection is a must to do all levels of government functions. In South Africa, in addition to the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Affairs, Water and Forestry, Mining and Energy Affairs and the Ministry of Health Environmental Protection Department also has oversight functions. these sectors in the development and implementation of national environmental criteria for coordinated action, joint supervision, environmental protection mechanisms for the formation of a firm.
Wu Ye Erwa said the South African government has always focused on training juvenile people environmental awareness. Government's a invaluable social atmosphere.
South Africa, Cape Town, two outstanding tourist attractions the metropolis beach and Seal Island penguins formation of environmental action with the local folk are inseparable.
the eastern coast of Cape Town, Simon's Town,beijing massage, the native Penguin Beach as one mediocre small bay .1982, the 2 African penguins came here and settled down, the local dwellers to protect their own initiative to preoccupy more penguins to come. With the boost in the number penguin, government and animal protection organizations This turned into nature keeps. After 20 years of breeding, the digit of penguin penguin coast has immediately over 3000,shanghai escort, will convert a national tourists to the land. Seal Island, Cape Town, Hout Bay was originally a rocky island. in the quondam Fishermen often ascertain seals basking on the rocks aboard the isle, feeding on small fish caught throwing them. where seals therefore increasing in digit, are now tens of thousands.
Wu Ye Erwa said the South African government In the natural context to create a nice and also attaches magnificent magnitude to reduce environmental pollution. For instance, in array to assure the secure use of pesticides and decrease abuse to the surroundings, South Africa namely disallowed to use whichever possible pollution of the environment and impair people and animal health pesticides. in charge of farming and health sectors United also provides: Where the allocation of assorted pesticides in the servant market in South Africa must have two product appraisal issued along the department.
In addition,shanghai massage, South Africa, waste recovery and utilization is an essential portion of environmental protection. South Africa's waste periodical recycling accounting for 37% of domestic periodical making,shanghai escort, the recovery rate of waste plastic products 17%, higher than the United States and some European countries. (reporter Li Jianmin)
Source: Internet

2007 Pan-American Sports

China Sea Environmental Corporation (Ocean Protection Commune) PSAs
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commune aboard the ocean environment :
sea green commune namely the premier private sailor Environmental teams , was established in July 1,】 【Picture Book guji guju ducks raised alligator,shanghai escort, 2005 . The built environment is derived from clean clothing , Mr. volunteers walk 2000 miles seashore of China ,shanghai massage, experience the present situation of China's coastal pollution , and consciously initiated . The mind of international civil society based on grass roots Organization (NGO) of the inspiration , the site is entirely public good social web media. the economic security of personal and fully clean clothing preordained to support the welfare of all walks of life .
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a foam burst

This confidence trick
See is over it?
since early March in global equity markets rebound after bottoming out. As of mid-April,beijing massage, the world's important stock markets reported a 20% gain. in the hardest kick by the financial crisis, U.S. banks reported good results Annual Report. President Obama talked about seeing a shimmer of hope. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also think the economy of the initial signs of recovery. Japan has just announced a new economic stimulus package. market prophesy, China will be announced The second round of economic stimulus package. suddenly appeared on the market The next sequence of new problems will market fell anew. banking initial public attempting (IPO) will be devoured emerging markets. peruse more investors will use their own real money, for these banks and companies undergoing warm clothes weaving.
In fact, the placement may have been filled with the tide, bear market rally may be concluded within a month or two. good newspaper for the economic stimulation of the data migrate, and a bear market rally may be staged this fall. until proven unsustainable economic recovery, the second economic recession, or inflation expansion of the pressure forcing the central bank and monetary constricting despite the weak economy, the rally will end. asset prices in the second half of 2010 fell to the bottom end. then, the market will see a fiscal stimulus, whether from depletion, the central bank can no longer printing money, the abuse.
bear market rally is not sustainable
in early 2009, I expect a rebound will occur two to three dwelling. Now, I modified my views, I think, will emerge twice a rebound in 2009. Now, We are experiencing the first skip, securities nestle and IPO will end this rally. turn a good macro-economic data will promote a new round in the third quarter rally. In a formerly promulgated treatise, I predict the economy will be a second in 2010 recessions.
since the summer of 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, terror dominated the financial markets. previous market rally are short-term weakness, just a prefix to the afterward crash. Over the past five weeks of increases, is as yet the longest bear market rebound. It lasts longer, the market surmise the more panic. I can feel the pessimism to see more investors.
few days ago, the U.S. TV outlet CNBC in an interview, a man with a ; tide of financial crisis thumping . Goldman Sachs pioneered the publication of operating in nice condition, they also need to raise funds to compensate the government? in emerging markets, IPO suspension will comeback later two years.
For investors, they absence to think is that these companies need financing reasons. in the foreseeable hereafter, muscular growth in the universal economy is unlikely that companies do not need capital to amplify, the most presumable respond is to arrange for the future of bitterness. I think that these positive comments made in public affair is not optimistic about the hereafter, equitable want to optimism in the market when the chance is still misappropriating. fashionable financing needs will eventually overwhelm the market.
bull market conditions are: the market has been down or no; the global economy is retrieval or will revive; if the economy is still complicated, the Government will accept more economic stimulus measures. there is a bear market conditions: the level of debt was still high debt levels the global economy can not reproduce the case of non-normalized growth; the global economy is still dwindling, despite the likelihood of a inferior extent; the Government's incentive archive can not start a new round of economic growth cycle.
bearish camp, I stood alongside. This is a once in a centenary economic emergency, only 20 can be compared Century 30's back to the standard 20 annuals ago; Second, fabrication exporters, such for China, Germany, Japan, must be significantly disabled its production-oriented functions.
debt crisis is far from over. Despite all the speak about as in the quondam to the market to lend money, but they can rotate to the Fed and the U.S. government. In the United States reduce the leverage of financial traditions have not yet the case,shanghai escort, how can we say that the crisis is over it?
debt disadvantageous consequences occasioned at the bubble burst only just appeared. As of the end of 2008, U.S. family web asset has shrunk from a peak in 2007 of 20%, fell to 13 trillion. U.S. real estate prices are still down. U.S. housing prices are threaten to fall further to 5 trillion or more. On the other hand, U.S. family debt levels did not decline, the end of 2008 is 13.8 trillion greenbacks. This is the 30 years since the 20th century, the U.S. household debt for the first time higher than the real estate market. Clearly, depending on Housing time real estate to consumer loans gone.
revenue perspective is highly frosty. Global demand for aid from some of the credit bubble has been obliterated out, Europe, Japan and the U.S. unemployment rate is rising quickly. With the unemployment groups to dwindle consumer costing,huge midday, the multiplier effect to promote a further addition in unemployment, a vicious wheel has by far bottomed out. the ever-increasing shock of unemployment on claim will proceed to 2010.
Do not hope a lot of new bubble
those who see multi-market, in the hope that the emergence of a new bubble. They think that if people are optimistic the market will worth their money, rising asset prices will support additional demand, the company proceeds will enhance, so will the bull market into the future true. In fact,shanghai escort, addition on a new round of bubble populations in the world today is very common, and even policy makers privately hope that the emergence of new bubbles. crisis destroyed the people's morale. They still miss the good old days. Deliberation of, discernment, Atsuyuki the normal. When the bubble burst the anguish became unbearable, these people will be on the good times past hallucination. their collective behavior will lead the market rebound, as if the bubble once more. However, a bubble burst, no longer can not recover as ever.
governments and central banks tried to discourage asset prices. Now, hopes are pinned on the government's rescue operations. However, the interest rate is near to naught, the budget shortage is also high. When a sudden rise of inflation, the Government will lose aid. In the last wish is lost, asset prices will bottom actually expected this scene will happen in 2010.
Some people will argue: Why can not we blow the old foam or re-create new bubbles do ? The problem is, a continuation of several years after the bubble burst, it left garbage everywhere, so the lack of new bubbles foothold. For example, the current high level of debt can not rise further; If the debt can not increase the level of the bubble can never expand. to improve the current situation will take time, if you await for a new round of the bubble, I am terrified it will be a long wait.
collective human idea vulnerable to mood alterations. If people believe what they are familiar, folk will lightly believe. animal world there are similar Crocodile at the same time can only eat an animal, so that the outlay of a partner's life to ensure the other secure. It appears that herd behavior is causativeable rejoinder to normal course of peril.
I namely the efficacy of the human genome in like of the group apt cross the rill with the herd of collective action namely the same. Despite the mutation of the mental cortex makes logical human creatures tin think, yet instinctively did not lose, but hiding very deep, whether circumstances allow, apt jump out to dominate. This is despite the many times in human history has a lesson of blood, but still seen above the reasons because the bubble.
savage animals crossroads the advantages of the collective is real, and if they cross the river lonely, will be left to crocodile hounding them more time. If they want to play there are a lot of advantages to cross the river, we need a leader who launched the run and the first leader who rupture into the river distant the probability of being dined much higher than other animals. irrational behavior is really for the benefit of the individual interests of the community.
in economic life, and some bubble is surely conducive to economic evolution. For example, IT bubble created by the global science and technology has also benefited, nevertheless the the original investors may lose money. those who believe that investment in IT field can be compared to wealthy people in the herd leader who does not consciously in the public interest at the expense of their own.
technological ingredients steer most of the bubble have similar characteristics,shanghai massage, to benefit the world but not for investors. Schumpeter (Joseph Schumpeter) of the , so the governments and central banks for their very generous.
over time, on altitude of the fruitful assets, president of a colossal bubble, it will have destructive results. global real estate bubble belong to this species, the leverage effect of derivatives has created unprecedented boom in the real estate market. nonproductive bubble built on top of the high debt levels, or lead to large-scale bank failures (as the U.S. century, 30 years), or will lead to hyperinflation (as Germany century, 20 years) or a huge government debt (as Century 90's Japan). from a debt bubble product to recover the abuse caused by the need for a long time. < br> Although the pain of the bursting bubble, but it is not so desperate. This is for, although the companies faced bankruptcy and household, but the government's stimulus policies to make them live peacefully in general. the 1 hand, fiscal policy and monetary policy to do The best to support, on the other hand are words to soothe investors, increase investor confidence, hope to turn to the asset market, cattle, drive economic growth. Currently, oral provocation of these policies are going.
sample, the U.S. administration is to carry out accentuate tests on the U.S. banking manufacture, aimed at the banking industry can withstand mall estimated evolution. I believe that most banks execute well via this test, although, it is only self-deception . In truth, the U.S. fiscal system is bankrupt from a technical point of outlook. A strength of the banking system, reflecting its services, the strength of the economic system. We take a see at the balance sheet of American families, we can entirely comprehend that in so many Customer circumstance of insolvency, the banking industry on how to survive?
these Real estate amounts are falling, the unemployment rate continues to ascend. When inflation suddenly looked up, it will shut the government salvage arrange final door. At that time, despite the penniless economic location, the central bank had to heave interest rates, asset costs will the real base end.
can solace people artificial hope, but delay the needful reforms, can only make the situation got so bad. When the government tried to recover past payments play a lot of good times, they find that they absence financial resources to alleviate the present the pain of structural reform. the entire world like a destitute drug addicts, and often advance the social welfare checks to satisfy their obsession. When the retard spend tired and had to completely cede the old habits.
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